A Hard Landing or Stagflation?

Predicting a "hard landing" recession is not much more than making the observation that the horse is already out of the barn. It is also an intellectual hedge, to not go too far out on the limb, from making the observation that what we are facing is not just an economic "hard landing", but a period of stagflation. Looking at escalating food and energy costs, while not core items in "Fed Think", are certainly core items in living. Moreover, the pervasiveness of the dependency of the pricing of other goods on the production and availability of food and energy, suggests a very ugly outlook. This is compounded by increasing demand in the context of supply limitations for these items. It begs the question to hold the position that a slowing economy will dampen the demand for these goods. Externalities such as weather, geopolitical unrest, and strategic hoarding of vital resources, at the very least, cast doubt upon the premise of decreased demand because of slow, or recessionary, economic growth.

Author of The Emperor's Clothes; A Look at the Megatrends Affecting Your Financial and Investment Decisions
www.investmentmegatrends.com